Presidential politics have already begun for 2008. California has moved its primary up to February and Florida is poised to move its up to January. Maybe next cycle we can just drop the act and synch up the 2008 general election with the 2012 primary. Too much, too soon, I say.
In any event, they are off. On the GOP side, the Big Three are:
- Sen. John McCain (author of such hits as "McCain-Feingold" and "McCain-Kennedy"--in case you are not a Republican, those other names aren't exactly names you want to be associated with in a GOP primary, and those bills are terrible, too.)
- Gov. Mitt Romney (Mormon, past Governor of Massachusetts, and head of the 2002 Winter Olympics.)
- Mayor Rudy Giuliani (led NYC during 9/11.)
I won't do a major analysis of each here. But, in general, each has their strengths and drawbacks in a GOP primary. While their policies and history are important, at this point, you can look at their fund raising and staff to figure who has a good shot. Don't worry about primary polling, as the general public is not paying attention yet, and doesn't know everyone. Staff wise, I'd say it is about a push. Fund raising wise, Giuliani and Romney are fine. McCain is in trouble. Early fund raising brings in the 'smart money'--donors who follow, evaluate, and are passionate about politics. Later fund raising is from average citizens voting with their wallets. Viability is critical early on, or there is not a 'later on.'
As for Romney and Giuliani, they each face their own hurdles. I'd say Romney is less well known than his competitors. Also, his being Mormon may negatively influence GOP primary voters, who often come from an Evangelical background. The jury is still out on whether Evangelical Republicans will green light a Mormon to carry the party's banner. Giuliani, on the other hand, does not have social views that dovetail with Evangelicals either. Examples--on a personal front--are circulating on YouTube amongst political insiders. On a policy level, he is pro-abortion, anti-gun, and pro-gay marriage. Not the stuff of the Christian Coalition.
In short, there is not a clear-cut conservative, but Romney fits the bill closest on policy and personal issues. It raises the interesting question: will Christians vote for a non-Christian who would govern to their interests, or would they vote for a nominal (or non?) Christian that will govern against their interests? For me, I'm sticking with Martin Luther on this one. It is reported that he said, essentially, that he would rather be governed by a wise heathen than a stupid Christian. In short, in the politics of this world, someone of another religion might be best at governing us. In the 'politics' of the church, however, it ought to be a Christian.
Newt Gingrich and former Sen. Fred Thompson might yet jump into the race, which would change everything. But, as of now, the three above are the front runners.
On the Democratic side, the Big Two are Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. This article and polling is consistent with the conversations I've been having with folks. There is a huge segment of society that really dislikes (hates?) Sen. Clinton. They simply won't vote for her, no matter what. In politics, this is called having "high negatives." When your negatives are high (using polling questions showing what percentage of people dislike you) AND when your name ID is high (polling showing how many people know you) you are in trouble. If your name ID is low, you run ads, campaign and people respond to your "introduction." If you control the introduction--instead of your opponent defining you--your negatives don't go up, your "positives" do. But, if you are universally known and simultaneously disliked, you are in trouble. That's what makes this article so important:
Half of voting-age Americans say they would not vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) if she became the Democratic nominee for president in 2008, according to a Harris Interactive poll released Tuesday...More than one in five Democrats that participated in the survey said they would not vote for Clinton.
So to win, she would have to run the table on the remaining half! That's not possible. And, as noted above, it is very difficult to drive your negatives down when everyone already knows you--first impressions count. Now, these generic questions are not 100% accurate, as people aren't given a choice--"would you vote for Clinton or Romney..." Basically, they are answering in a vacuum. But, given a choice, the numbers sometimes change. If you put Clinton up against Attila the Hun, Clinton's 50% number drops into the high 30's, I think. But, against the non-Attila's of Romney (very likable), Giuliani (universally known and well liked), and McCain (not likable, but well known and respected), Clinton faces a much tougher challenge.
This analysis is certainly being done by Democratic operatives and engaged primary voters. As a result, Obama is rising, quickly. Usually candidates want to increase their name ID, as Obama does. But for Clinton, it'd be better if it was lower, and she could then have a chance to "introduce" herself as she wants. But that ship has sailed.
In the meantime, the country is just meeting Sen. Obama. He seems photogenic, friendly, and smart. He is inexperienced--this is his first term as Senator--but that, many say, is better than Clinton's experience! Basically, they will be willing to take a shot on a seemingly likable unknown, as opposed to an unlikeable known. As for staff and money: I'm not as sure about the Democratic operations, but from what I've read, I'd guess it is in Clinton's favor--she can tap into her husband's machinery and donor base.
So, people worrying about a Clinton presidency, should note: it is highly unlikely that a candidate with at least 50% against them from the start will win. That's not to say she won't get nominated, but it'll be tough to win the general election. On the GOP side, if Evangelicals decide a Mormon is acceptable, I'd give Romney the advantage at this stage, with Giuliani a close second.
History might should play an important role too. Only 2 sitting Senators have been elected President in the last 100+ years. Senators just don't get elected President. They've got too many legislative votes to defend and they haven't been executives for a while, if ever. This always hurts them. Senators McCain, Obama, and Clinton will each have to defy history to win. Historically, executives (governors or mayors) are better positioned to become President.
Man, by nature, is a political animal,
Thomas More
allthesemore@yahoo.com
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