I have been telling people for a while now, that Sen. Hillary Clinton has a very tough battle ahead of her, if she wants to become President. It is not because she can't win the Democratic primary, I think she can--I don't necessarily think she will, but she can. Her problem is her extremely high 'negatives' with average Americans--meaning polling numbers that have voters not liking/approving/voting for her.
This new poll has her negatives crossing the 50% threshold. Given that you, generally speaking, need over 50% of the people to vote for you to win, having 52% of Americans say they would never vote for you is a very bad thing. And it is not just high negatives with Republicans, Independents are not going for her either:
"Hillary's carrying a lot of baggage," [the pollster] said. "She's the only one that has a majority who say they can't vote for her."
Clinton rang up high negatives across the board, with 60 percent of independents, 56 percent of men, 47 percent of women and 88 percent of Republicans saying they wouldn't consider voting for her.
Think about that: the first serious female candidate for President in U.S. history, and 47% OF WOMEN say "they wouldn't consider voting for her." WOULDN'T CONSIDER IT?!? That's pretty bad. I assume her campaign was not planning on winning the general election by barely eeking out a victory among women.
To win the presidency, you have to nearly sweep your own party--she can do that--win the independents, and pick up some from the other side. But these numbers are of people who will NOT vote for her--or even consider doing so--and that makes this a pretty bleak position to be in. It is made worse by the fact that her name recognition--how many people know her--is very high. Thus, people know her and don't like her, as opposed to most candidates at this point in a race, who don't have their name ID high enough.
Keep in mind, however, that these polls usually are generic and not pitting one person against another. So it is not like the women or Independents are getting a "who would you vote for, Clinton or Gingrich" type of question. Often, when forced to, they will pick the "lesser of two evils" if they don't like either candidate. So today they say they "won't consider it" when tomorrow, they do. That said, having this many people not even consider you, makes your primary and general-election opponents get a HUGE benefit of the doubt and first chance to impress voters. They are basically going to look for anyone they can vote for instead of her.
Interestingly, the far lesser known Mitt Romney (a GOP candidate) also has high negatives. You can't explain this as easily, as he was never on the national stage like Hillary was. The pollster speculates that it is his Mormon religion that is causing people to refuse to consider him. I haven't seen polling on that, but it does seem a logical guess. He's friendly, well spoken, good looking, and a Republican in a Democrat state (Massachusetts) who has not done anything too controversial. Given those facts, it is probably not his political career that makes him so reviled (unlike Clinton and, say, McCain.) You can, therefore, assume it is something about his personal life that is causing the negatives to go up--and in this case, the most prominent issue is his being Mormon.
They like me, they really, really like me,
Thomas More
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