I've posted before that I am a skeptic not just of "global warming" but also, and more importantly, of the debate behind the topic. Now, two Canadian scientists are trying to shed more light on both problems. At its core, you have disingenuous people pushing theories that are not fact. The media finds a drama to sell and pushes it. Politicians see a way to get ahead, and we are off.
One technique of the pro-warming group is to assert that "all credible scientists agree" on global warming and its source. This paints dissenters as fringe wackos. But, it is not true. Also, what if there is a scientific explanation for the warming, such as a change in the sun? If that is true, then the planet is warming but it is not by human hands. That is, essentially, what the scientists in this article are explaining. It is worth a look.
Why does any of this matter? Well, two reasons. First, we cannot base public policy--which has serious economic and behavioral ramifications--on the same grounds as choosing the prom queen: popularity with the 'in' crowd. Second, combating global warming by shutting down cars and factories costs society wealth--either in lost production (and therefore real people's jobs) or in clean up costs. That wealth could be used to combat actual--not theoretical--problems in this world: AIDS, malaria, or cancer. For a sense of the cost of Kyoto versus the cost of malaria, look at this page (Kyoto) and this page (malaria). What a tragedy. As Tim Patterson, of Carleton University in Ottawa, notes:
All the money wasted on Kyoto in a year could provide clean drinking water for Africa...We're into a new era of science with the discussion of solar forces. Eventually, Kyoto is going to fall by the wayside. In the meantime, I'm worried we're going to spend millions that could have been spent on something better like air pollution.
Dr. Patterson does not simply bury his head in the sand--either by blindly agreeing to the man-made-warming argument, or by denying statistically verifiable warming. But he asserts that the most up-to-date research is showing warming over the last century is directly tied to changes in the sun's brightness. I don't think my SUV, Rosie's toilet paper, or your hybrid is going to change that.
Maybe we should then refocus on the science, not the popularity or political correctness of the issue, and see if our money would not be better spent getting clean water in Africa.
Thomas More
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